Final Project

library(readr)
library(tidyverse)
library(ggplot2)
library(janitor)
library(tidycensus)
library(viridis) 
library(tscount)
library(yrbss)
library(zoo)
library(purrr)
library(gganimate)
library(usmap)
library(maps)

import_raw_data = FALSE

if(import_raw_data){
# read in data from local csv file
ss = read_csv("../../data_1/school_shootings.csv")

# first row has column names
colnames(ss) = ss[1,]

ss = ss[-1,]%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  select(-c(na,na_2))

# columns after row 1426 were shifter in original table
ss2 = read_csv("../../data_1/ss_pt2.csv")%>%
  select(-X1)
colnames(ss2)=colnames(ss)[34:ncol(ss)]

ss[(1426:nrow(ss)),(34:ncol(ss))]=ss2

ss$shooter_age = as.numeric(ss$shooter_age)

write.csv(ss,"ss_data.csv")
}

Read in and clean data

# ss is csv file with school shooting data (individual incidents)
ss = read_csv("ss_data.csv")%>%
  select(-X1)%>%
  mutate(year = as.numeric(substr(date, (nchar(date)-3),nchar(date))))%>%
  mutate(state = ifelse(state == "St. Croix, US Virgin Islands","St.Croix",state))%>%
  distinct_at(.vars = c(1:24), .keep_all = T)%>%
  filter(category != "Accident")%>%
  filter(reliability_score_1_5!=1)

Population data

# data set to go from state names to abbreviations

states = data.frame(state.name,state.abb)
dc = data.frame(matrix(ncol= 2, nrow = 1))
colnames(dc)=colnames(states)
dc$`state.name` = "District of Columbia"
dc$`state.abb` = "DC"

states = rbind(states,dc)
states$state.name = as.character(states$state.name)

if(import_raw_data){

# 1980-1990
pop8090_raw = read.delim("https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/1980-1990/state/asrh/st8090ts.txt" )%>%data.frame()
pop8090_raw = pop8090_raw[c(8:58,64:114),]%>%data.frame()
colnames(pop8090_raw)="var"
pop8090 = data.frame(pop8090_raw$var[1:51],pop8090_raw$var[52:102])

colnames(pop8090)=c("var1","var2")


pop8090 = pop8090%>%
  separate(var1, c("state",as.character(seq(1980,1984,by = 1))), extra = "merge")%>%
  separate(var2, c("state1",as.character(seq(1985,1990,by = 1))), extra = "merge")%>%
  select(c(state,starts_with("19")))
  
# 1970 - 1980
pop7080_raw = read.delim("https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/1980-1990/state/asrh/st7080ts.txt")
pop7080_raw = pop7080_raw[c(10:61,63:114),]%>%data.frame()
colnames(pop7080_raw)="var"
pop7080 = data.frame(pop7080_raw$var[1:51],pop7080_raw$var[53:103])

colnames(pop7080)=c("var1","var2")

pop7080 = pop7080%>%
  separate(var1, c("blnk","id","state","1970","1971","1972","1973","1974","1975"), extra = "merge")%>%
  separate(var2, c("blnk1","id1","state1",as.character(seq(1976,1980,by = 1))), extra = "merge")%>%
  select(c(state,starts_with("19")))

# 1990-2000
pop90_00 = read_csv("../../data/pop_90-00.csv")%>%
  rename(state = X1)%>%
  select(c(state,3:13))%>%
  filter(state != "USA")
colnames(pop90_00)[2:ncol(pop90_00)]=as.character(seq(1990,2000,by = 1))
pop90_00$state[30:35] = states$state.name[29:34]
pop90_00$state[40:42] = states$state.name[39:41]
pop90_00$state[9] = states$state.name[51]
pop90_00$state[49] = states$state.name[48]

# 2000-2010
pop00_10 = read.csv("https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2000-2010/intercensal/state/st-est00int-agesex.csv")%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  filter(sex == 0, age == 999)%>%
  select(c(name,starts_with("popestimate")))%>%
  rename_at(vars(starts_with("popestimate")),funs(substr(.,start = 12, stop = 15)))%>%
  rename(state = name)%>%
  mutate(state = as.character(state))%>%
  mutate(state = ifelse(state=="District of Columbia",as.character(states$state.name[51]),state))%>%
  filter(state != "United States")

# 2010-2018
pop10_18 = read_csv("../../data/pop_2010-2018.csv")
colnames(pop10_18)=pop10_18[1,]

pop10_18 = pop10_18%>%
  slice(-1)%>%
  rename_at(vars(starts_with("Pop")), funs(substr(.,start = 38,stop = 41)))%>%
  rename(state = Geography)%>%
  select(c(state,starts_with("20")))%>%
  mutate(state = ifelse(state=="District of Columbia",as.character(states$state.name[51]),state))

# 2019

pop2019 = read_csv("../../data/2019pop.csv")%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  select(c(state,pop))%>%
  rename("2019"=pop)



pops = left_join(pop7080,pop8090%>%select(-c("1980")), by = "state")%>%
  left_join(states,by = c("state"="state.abb"))%>%
  mutate(state = state.name)%>%
  select(-state.name)%>%
  left_join(pop90_00%>%select(-c("1990")), by = "state")%>%
  left_join(pop00_10%>%select(-c("2000")), by = "state")%>%
  left_join(pop10_18%>%select(-c("2010")), by = "state")%>%
  left_join(pop2019,by = "state")%>%
  gather(key = "year", value = "population", c(2:51))


write.csv(pops, "state_populations.csv")

}

Read in population data

# read in population data (include abbreviated and full state name)
pops = read_csv("state_populations.csv")%>%
  select(-X1)%>%
  left_join(states, by = c("state"="state.name"))

Incident count format

sts = unique(ss$state)
yrs = seq(range(ss$year)[1],range(ss$year)[2],by=1)

st_yr = data.frame(state = rep(sts,length(yrs)), year = sort(rep(yrs,length(sts))))%>%
  arrange(state)

## data set aggrgated by state and year
ss_counts = ss%>%
  group_by(state,year) %>%
  summarize(incident_count = n(), 
            total_victims = sum(total_injured_killed_victims), 
            total_fatalities = sum(killed_includes_shooter),
            total_wounded = sum(wounded),
            avg_victims = mean(total_injured_killed_victims),
            avg_fatalities = mean(killed_includes_shooter),
            ave_wounded = mean(wounded),
            avg_shooter_age = mean(shooter_age),
            max_shooter_age = max(shooter_age),
            min_shooter_age = min(shooter_age),
            avg_reliability = mean(reliability_score_1_5),
            target = mean(ifelse(targeted_specific_victim_s=="Y",1,
                                 ifelse(targeted_specific_victim_s=="N",0,NA)),na.rm = T),
            random_vict = mean(ifelse(random_victims=="Y",1,
                                      ifelse(random_victims=="N",0,NA)),na.rm = T),
            bullied = mean(ifelse(bullied_y_n_n_a=="Y",1,
                                  ifelse(bullied_y_n_n_a=="N",0,NA)),na.rm = T),
            domestic_violence = mean(ifelse(domestic_violence_y_n=="Y",1,
                                            ifelse(domestic_violence_y_n=="N",0,NA)),na.rm = T))%>%
  mutate(in_ss = TRUE)%>%
  full_join(st_yr, by = c("state","year"))%>%
  left_join(pops%>%rename(full_state_name = state), by = c("state"="state.abb", "year"))%>%
  mutate(incident_count = ifelse(is.na(incident_count),0,incident_count))%>%
  mutate(in_ss = ifelse(is.na(in_ss),FALSE,in_ss))

Grade data

# read in state grade data

if(import_raw_data){
grades18 = read_csv("../../data_1/2018grades.csv")%>%
  select(-c(X6,X7))%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  select(-gun_death_rate_per_100k)%>%
  mutate(year = "2018")%>%
  rename(grade = x2018_grade)%>%
  select(state,grade,year)

grades17 = read_csv("../../data_1/2017grades.csv")%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  mutate(year = "2017")%>%
  rename(grade = x2017_grade)%>%
  select(state,grade,year)

grades16 = read_csv("../../data_1/2016grades.csv")%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  mutate(year = "2016")%>%
  rename(grade = x2016_grade)%>%
  select(state,grade,year)


grades15 = read_csv("../../data_1/2015grades.csv")%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  mutate(year = "2015")%>%
  rename(grade = x2015_grade)%>%
  select(state,grade,year)
# add in missing value
grades15 = rbind(grades15,c("Kansas","F",2015))

grades14 = read_csv("../../data_1/2014grades.csv")%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  mutate(year = "2014")%>%
  rename(grade = x2014_grade)%>%
  select(state,grade,year)

grades13 = read_csv("../../data_1/2013grades.csv")%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  mutate(year = "2013")%>%
  rename(grade = x2013_grade)%>%
  select(state,grade,year)

grades12 = read_csv("../../data_1/2012grades.csv")%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  mutate(year = "2012")%>%
  rename(grade = x2012_grade)%>%
  select(state,grade,year)

# combine all year data 

grades = bind_rows(grades18,grades17)%>%
  bind_rows(grades16)%>%
  bind_rows(grades15)%>%
  bind_rows(grades14)%>%
  bind_rows(grades13)%>%
  bind_rows(grades12)

write.csv(grades,"state_grades.csv")
}

Read in grade data

grades = read_csv("state_grades.csv")%>%
  select(-X1)

gpa_convert = data.frame(letter_grade = c("A","A-","B+","B","B-",
                                          "C+","C","C-","D+","D","D-","F"),
                         gpa = c(4,3.7,3.3,3,2.7,2.3,2,1.7,1.3,1,0.7,0))

ss_counts = ss_counts%>%
  left_join(grades%>%select(state,grade,year),by = c("full_state_name"="state","year"))%>%
  left_join(gpa_convert, by = c("grade"="letter_grade"))

Media data

media = read_csv("media_data.csv")%>%
  separate(`Year-Month`, into = c("year","month"), sep = "-")%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  select(-starts_with("x"))%>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  mutate(yearly_articles = sum(articles_shootings_excluding_firearm_laws_and_regulations))%>% 
  mutate(yearly_shootings = sum(mass_shooting))%>%
  mutate(art_per_inc = yearly_articles/yearly_shootings)%>%
  ungroup()%>%
  mutate(prev_month_art = c(0,articles_shootings_excluding_firearm_laws_and_regulations[1:227]))%>%
  mutate(prev_year_art = c(rep(0,12),yearly_articles[1:216]))%>%
  mutate(year = as.numeric(year))


ss_counts = ss_counts%>%
  left_join(media%>%select(prev_year_art, year,yearly_articles)%>%distinct(), by = "year")

Poverty data

pov=read.csv("census_poverty_data.csv",stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
pov=filter(pov,State!="      United States"&State!="     United States"& State!="District of Columbia"&State!="United States")

names(pov)[1:2]<-c("state","poverty")
names(pov)[4]<-"year"

skel=expand_grid(sort(unique(pov$state)),min(pov$year):(max(pov$year)+2))
names(skel)<-c("state","year")



sk1=filter(skel,year==2007|year==2008|year==2009)
sk1=left_join(sk1,filter(pov,year==2007),by="state")

sk2=filter(skel,year==2010|year==2011|year==2012)
sk2=left_join(sk2,filter(pov,year==2010),by="state")

sk3=filter(skel,year==2013|year==2014|year==2015)
sk3=left_join(sk3,filter(pov,year==2013),by="state")

sk4=filter(skel,year==2016|year==2017|year==2018)
sk4=left_join(sk4,filter(pov,year==2016),by="state")

pov=rbind(sk1,sk2,sk3,sk4)
pov=pov[,1:3]
names(pov)<-c("state","year","poverty")

Merge poverty data

pov = left_join(pov,states, by = c("state"="state.name"))%>%
  select(-state)%>%
  rename(state = state.abb)
ss_counts = left_join(ss_counts, pov, by = c("state","year"))

Bullying data

bully = read_csv("State_bullying.csv")%>%
  select(c(total_score,state.abb))%>%
  rename(state = state.abb)%>%
  mutate(year = 2010)

ss_counts = left_join(ss_counts, bully%>%select(-year), by = "state")%>%
  rename(bullying_score = total_score)%>%
  mutate(bullying_score = as.numeric(bullying_score))

Mental Health data

mh.data=read.csv("mh.data.csv",stringsAsFactors = FALSE)%>%
  clean_names()%>%
  select(-x)%>%
  left_join(states, by = c("state"="state.name"))%>%
  select(-state)%>%
  rename(state = state.abb)

ss_counts = ss_counts%>%
  left_join(mh.data, by = c("state","year"))%>%
  rename(mh_score = percent)

## Warning: Column `state` joining character vector and factor, coercing into
## character vector

CDC Bullying Data

qns = c("qn13","qn14","qn15","qn16","qn17","qn18","qn19","qn20","qn24","qn25","qn26","qn27","qn28","qn29","qn30","qnbullyweight","qnbullygay")
sts = yrbss::getListOfParticipatingStates()
yrs = c(1991,1993,1995,1997,1999,2001,2003,2005,2007,2009,2011,2013,2015)

if(import_raw_data){
bullying = data.frame(variable = NULL, state = NULL, year = NULL, prop= NULL, ciLB= NULL, ciUB = NULL, n = NULL)

for(v in qns){
  for(s in sts){
    for(y in yrs ){
      p = yrbss::getProportionSingleVariable(.variable = v, .location = s, .year = y, .level = 0.95)$prop
    ciL = yrbss::getProportionSingleVariable(.variable = v, .location = s, .year = y, .level = 0.95)$ciLB
    ciU = yrbss::getProportionSingleVariable(.variable = v, .location = s, .year = y, .level = 0.95)$ciUB
    sample_size = yrbss::getProportionSingleVariable(.variable = v, .location = s, .year = y, .level = 0.95)$n
    newrow = data.frame(variable = v, state = s, year = y, prop= p, ciLB= ciL, ciUB = ciU, n = sample_size)
    bullying = bind_rows(bullying,newrow)}
}}

lab = data.frame(question = yrbss::yrbss_questions_binary$variable, label = yrbss::yrbss_questions_binary$label)%>%
   filter(question %in% qns)
 
bullying = left_join(bullying,lab, by = c(variable = "question"))
bullying$state[which(bullying$state=="AZB")]="AZ"
write_csv(bullying, "bullying_survey.csv")
}

lab = data.frame(question = yrbss::yrbss_questions_binary$variable, label = yrbss::yrbss_questions_binary$label)%>%
   filter(question %in% qns)
# read in csv
bullying_survey = read_csv("bullying_survey.csv")

## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
##   variable = col_character(),
##   state = col_character(),
##   year = col_double(),
##   prop = col_double(),
##   ciLB = col_double(),
##   ciUB = col_double(),
##   n = col_double(),
##   label = col_character()
## )

# check missingness for 2009-2015
sum(!complete.cases(filter(bullying_survey, year>=2007)))/nrow(filter(bullying_survey, year>=2007))

## [1] 0.3135135

### We're going to need to impute values for missing years and states for some of these variables if these data are going to be useful in our analysis

Make combined variables for survey questions

# combine suicide questions 
suicide = data.frame(year = NULL, state = NULL, score = NULL, n = NULL)
suicide_qns = bullying_survey%>%
  filter(variable %in% c("qn26","qn27","qn28","qn29","qn30"))

sts[which(sts=="AZB")]="AZ"
for(y in yrs){
  for(st in sts){
    dat = filter(suicide_qns,(year ==y & state == st))
    suicide_score = weighted.mean(dat$prop,(dat$n/sum(dat$n)), na.rm = TRUE)
    samp = mean(dat$n,na.rm = TRUE)
    newrow = data.frame(year = y, state = st, score = suicide_score, n = samp)
    suicide = bind_rows(suicide,newrow)
  }
}

# combine questions involving physical fights
fight = data.frame(year = NULL, state = NULL, score = NULL, n = NULL)
fight_qns = bullying_survey%>%
  filter(variable %in% c("qn18","qn19","qn20"))

for(y in yrs){
  for(st in sts){
    dat = filter(fight_qns,(year ==y & state == st))
    fight_score = weighted.mean(dat$prop,(dat$n/sum(dat$n)),, na.rm = TRUE)
    samp = mean(dat$n,na.rm = TRUE)
    newrow = data.frame(year = y, state = st, score = fight_score, n = samp)
    fight = bind_rows(fight,newrow)
  }
}

# school safety questions
safety = data.frame(year = NULL, state = NULL, score = NULL, n = NULL)
safety_qns = bullying_survey%>%
  filter(variable %in% c("qn13","qn14","qn15","qn16","qn17"))

for(y in yrs){
  for(st in sts){
    dat = filter(safety_qns,(year ==y & state == st))
    safety_score = weighted.mean(dat$prop,(dat$n/sum(dat$n)), na.rm = TRUE)
    samp = mean(dat$n,na.rm = TRUE)
    newrow = data.frame(year = y, state = st, score = safety_score, n = samp)
    safety = bind_rows(safety,newrow)
  }
}

# bullying questions
bull = data.frame(year = NULL, state = NULL, score = NULL, n = NULL)
bully_qns = bullying_survey%>%
  filter(variable %in% c("qn24","qn25","qnbullyweight","qnbullygay"))

for(y in yrs){
  for(st in sts){
    dat = filter(bully_qns,(year ==y & state == st))
    bully_score = weighted.mean(dat$prop,(dat$n/sum(dat$n)), na.rm = TRUE)
    samp = mean(dat$n,na.rm = TRUE)
    newrow = data.frame(year = y, state = st, score = bully_score, n = samp)
    bull = bind_rows(bull,newrow)
  }
}


survey_combined = bind_cols(suicide,safety, fight, bull)%>%
  select(year, state, score, n, score1, n1, score2, n2, score3, n3)%>%
  rename(suicide_score = score, school_safety_score = score1, fight_score = score2, bully_score = score3)%>%
  filter(year>=2007)%>%
  full_join(st_yr%>%filter(year>=2007))%>%
  arrange(year)%>%
  arrange(state)%>%
  mutate(state = ifelse(state == "AZB","AZ",state))

survey_combined = survey_combined%>%
  group_by(state)%>%
  mutate(suicide_score =ifelse(year<2016,ifelse(is.na(suicide_score), na.locf(suicide_score)/2+na.locf(suicide_score, fromLast = TRUE)/2,suicide_score),
                              NA ))%>%
  mutate(school_safety_score =ifelse(year<2016,ifelse(is.na(school_safety_score), na.locf(school_safety_score)/2+na.locf(school_safety_score, fromLast = TRUE)/2,school_safety_score),NA))%>%
    mutate(fight_score =ifelse(year<2016,ifelse(is.na(fight_score), na.locf(fight_score)/2+na.locf(fight_score, fromLast = TRUE)/2,fight_score),NA))%>%
      mutate(bully_score =ifelse(year<2016,ifelse(is.na(bully_score), na.locf(bully_score)/2+na.locf(bully_score, fromLast = TRUE)/2,bully_score),NA))%>%
        mutate(n=ifelse(year<2016,ifelse(is.na(n), na.locf(n)/2+na.locf(n, fromLast = TRUE)/2,n),NA))%>%
          mutate(n1=ifelse(year<2016,ifelse(is.na(n1), na.locf(n1)/2+na.locf(n1, fromLast = TRUE)/2,n1),NA))%>%
          mutate(n2=ifelse(year<2016,ifelse(is.na(n2), na.locf(n2)/2+na.locf(n2, fromLast = TRUE)/2,n2),NA))%>%       
  mutate(n3=ifelse(year<2016,ifelse(is.na(n3), na.locf(n3)/2+na.locf(n3, fromLast = TRUE)/2,n3),NA))


# use fitted line to get 2016-2019 values 
for(s in sts[which(!(sts %in% c("MA","AZB")))]){
  dat = filter(survey_combined, state ==s)
  ind = which(is.na(dat$suicide_score))[1]
  slp = dat[ind-1,3:10]-dat[ind-2,3:10]
  dat[which(is.na(dat$suicide_score))[1],3:10] =  dat[(ind-1),3:10]+as.numeric(dat[which(is.na(dat$suicide_score))[1],1]-2015)*slp
    dat[which(is.na(dat$suicide_score))[1],3:10] =  dat[(ind-1),3:10]+as.numeric(dat[which(is.na(dat$suicide_score))[1],1]-2015)*slp  
    dat[which(is.na(dat$suicide_score))[1],3:10] =  dat[(ind-1),3:10]+as.numeric(dat[which(is.na(dat$suicide_score))[1],1]-2015)*slp  
    dat[which(is.na(dat$suicide_score))[1],3:10] =  dat[(ind-1),3:10]+as.numeric(dat[which(is.na(dat$suicide_score))[1],1]-2015)*slp

  survey_combined[which(survey_combined$state == s),]=dat
}

# chech to see if mean and median are different
survey_combined%>%
  group_by(year)%>%
  summarise(med_ss = median(suicide_score, na.rm = T), mn_ss = mean(suicide_score, na.rm = T),
            med_safe = median(school_safety_score, na.rm = T), mn_safe = mean(school_safety_score, na.rm = T),
            med_f = median(fight_score, na.rm = T), mn_f = mean(fight_score, na.rm = T),
            med_b = median(bully_score, na.rm = T), mn_b = mean(bully_score, na.rm = T))

## # A tibble: 13 x 9
##     year med_ss mn_ss med_safe mn_safe  med_f   mn_f med_b  mn_b
##    <dbl>  <dbl> <dbl>    <dbl>   <dbl>  <dbl>  <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
##  1  2007  0.133 0.130   0.0908  0.0880 0.152  0.154  0.195 0.198
##  2  2008  0.128 0.131   0.0874  0.0866 0.151  0.153  0.195 0.198
##  3  2009  0.132 0.132   0.0839  0.0847 0.144  0.152  0.195 0.198
##  4  2010  0.131 0.132   0.0823  0.0847 0.144  0.145  0.188 0.186
##  5  2011  0.129 0.133   0.0826  0.0838 0.137  0.142  0.186 0.187
##  6  2012  0.136 0.139   0.0822  0.0850 0.126  0.134  0.182 0.186
##  7  2013  0.143 0.143   0.0841  0.0888 0.120  0.125  0.183 0.187
##  8  2014  0.147 0.146   0.0844  0.0864 0.108  0.120  0.189 0.185
##  9  2015  0.152 0.149   0.0809  0.0831 0.104  0.113  0.189 0.185
## 10  2016  0.156 0.152   0.0754  0.0798 0.104  0.106  0.189 0.184
## 11  2017  0.156 0.155   0.0746  0.0765 0.0993 0.0993 0.189 0.184
## 12  2018  0.154 0.157   0.0713  0.0731 0.0965 0.0925 0.189 0.184
## 13  2019  0.156 0.160   0.0712  0.0698 0.0933 0.0857 0.189 0.184

# impute missing values with median value for each column

survey_combined = survey_combined%>%
  ungroup()%>%
  group_by(year)%>%
  mutate(suicide_score = ifelse(is.na(suicide_score), median(suicide_score, na.rm = T),suicide_score))%>%
  mutate(school_safety_score = ifelse(is.na(school_safety_score), median(school_safety_score, na.rm = T),school_safety_score))%>%
  mutate(fight_score = ifelse(is.na(fight_score), median(fight_score, na.rm = T),fight_score))%>%
  mutate(bully_score = ifelse(is.na(bully_score), median(bully_score, na.rm = T),bully_score))%>%
  mutate(n = ifelse(is.na(n), median(n, na.rm = T),n))%>%
  mutate(n1 = ifelse(is.na(n1), median(n1, na.rm = T),n1))%>%
  mutate(n2 = ifelse(is.na(n2), median(n2, na.rm = T),n2))%>%
  mutate(n3 = ifelse(is.na(n3), median(n3, na.rm = T),n3))%>%
  mutate(school_safety_score = ifelse(school_safety_score<0,0,school_safety_score))%>%
  mutate(fight_score = ifelse(fight_score<0,0,fight_score))

ss_counts = left_join(ss_counts, survey_combined, by = c("state","year"))%>%
  filter(state != "DC")

rand.count.data = read_csv("cleaned.rand.csv")%>%
  select(-X1)%>%
  left_join(states, by = c("state"= "state.name"))%>%
  select(-state)%>%
  rename(state = state.abb)

## Warning: Missing column names filled in: 'X1' [1]

## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
##   .default = col_double(),
##   state = col_character()
## )

## See spec(...) for full column specifications.

ss_counts = left_join(ss_counts,rand.count.data, by = c("state","year"))

## Warning: Column `state` joining character vector and factor, coercing into
## character vector

ss_counts = ss_counts%>%
  mutate(access_laws = -1*(age_permissive-age_restrictive+child_access_permissive-child_access_restrictive+prohibited_possessor_permissive-prohibited_possessor_restrictive))%>%
  mutate(transport= -1*(castle_doctrine_permissive-castle_doctrine_restrictive+open_carry_permissive-open_carry_restrictive+carrying_permissive-carrying_permissive))%>%
  mutate(screening = -1*(background_check_permissive- background_check_restrictive + waiting_period_permissive- waiting_period_restrictive + permit_permissive - permit_restrictive + registration_permissive - registration_restrictive + safety_training_permissive - safety_training_restrictive + dealer_license_permissive - dealer_license_restrictive + one_gun_per_permissive - one_gun_per_restrictive))%>%
  mutate(ban = -ban_permissive+ban_restrictive)%>%
  select(-c(36:63))

EDA

table(ss$reliability_score_1_5)%>%
  data.frame()%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = Var1, y = Freq))+
  geom_bar(aes(fill = Var1), stat = "identity")+
  scale_fill_discrete(name = "Reliability Score")+
  labs(x = "Reliability Score", y = "Count")

table(ss$school_type)%>%
  data.frame()%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = Var1, y = Freq))+
  geom_bar(aes(fill = Var1), stat = "identity")+
  scale_fill_discrete(name = "School Type")+
  labs(x = "School Type", y = "Count")

ss%>%
  filter(shooter_age<200)%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = reorder(state, shooter_age, FUN = mean), y = shooter_age))+
  geom_boxplot()+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 6))+
  labs(y = "Age of shooter", x = "State", title = "Age of Shooter by State")

ss%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = reorder(state, killed_includes_shooter, FUN = mean), y = killed_includes_shooter))+
  geom_boxplot()+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 6))+
  labs(y = "Numbeer Killed (including shooter)", x = "State", title = "Fatalities")

ss%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = reorder(state, wounded, FUN = mean), y = total_injured_killed_victims))+
  geom_boxplot()+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 6))+
  labs(y = "Wounded ", x = "State", title = "Number Wounded")

ss%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = reorder(state, total_injured_killed_victims, FUN = mean), y = total_injured_killed_victims))+
  geom_boxplot()+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 6))+
  labs(y = "Wounded or Killed", x = "State", title = "Combined Wounded & Fatalities")

table(ss$state)%>%
  data.frame()%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = Var1, y = Freq))+
  geom_bar(aes(x = reorder(Var1,Freq, desc)), stat = "identity")+
  labs(x = "State", y = "Count", "Number of incidents by State (overall)")+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 6))

Grade plots

cc = scales::seq_gradient_pal("green", "red", "Lab")(seq(0,1,length.out=12))
cc2 = scales::seq_gradient_pal("green", "red", "Lab")(seq(0,1,length.out=5))


# This will handle the ordering
d <- ss_counts %>% 
  filter(year %in% seq(2012,2018,by=1))%>%
  mutate(grade = substr(grade,1,1))%>%
  ungroup() %>%   # As a precaution / handle in a separate .grouped_df method
  arrange(year, grade) %>%   # arrange by facet variables and continuous values
  mutate(.r = row_number()) # Add a row number variable

ggplot(d, aes(x = .r, y= incident_count, fill = grade)) +  # Use .r instead of x
  geom_point(data = d%>%filter(incident_count==0),
             aes(x = .r, y= incident_count, color = grade),
             size = 0.7) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity")+
  facet_wrap(~ year, scales = "free_x") +  # Should free scales (though could be left to user)
  scale_x_continuous(  # This handles replacement of .r for x
    breaks = d$.r,     # notice need to reuse data frame
    labels = d$state
  )+
  labs(title = "Incident Count by Grade", x = "State", y = "School Shootings")+
  scale_fill_viridis_d( name = "Grade", direction = -1)+
  scale_color_viridis_d( guide = FALSE, direction = -1)+
  theme_bw()+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 3.5), legend.position = c(0.7,.15), legend.direction = "horizontal",legend.key.size = unit(1.5,"line"), legend.text = element_text(size = 8), legend.title = element_text(size = 10),plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

### Outcome plot: 
ss_counts%>%
  group_by(year)%>%
  summarise(ss = sum(incident_count))%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = year, y = ss))+
  geom_line(color = "red")+
  labs(x = "Year", y = "School Shootings", title = "School Shootings in the U.S.")+
  theme_bw()+
  theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

ss_counts%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = reorder(state, population, FUN = mean), y = incident_count, color = state))+
  geom_boxplot()+
  theme_bw()+
  coord_flip()+
  theme(legend.position = "none")

grades = left_join(grades, gpa_convert, by = c("grade"="letter_grade"))

dat_loc= map_data("state")%>%
  mutate(sts=toupper(region))

b=full_join(grades%>%mutate(state = tolower(state)), dat_loc, by=c("state"="region"))
b = b%>%mutate(year = as.numeric(year))%>%filter(!is.na(year))%>%select(-subregion)
b = b[complete.cases(b),]

map_plts = ggplot(data = b, aes(x = long, y = lat, group = group))+
  geom_polygon(aes(fill = gpa), color = "white")+
  scale_fill_viridis(option = "D", name = "GPA")+
  labs(title = "Grade Changes by Year", subtitle = 'Year: {frame_time}', x = NULL, y = NULL)+
  theme_bw()+
  theme(line = element_blank(), axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.text.y = element_blank(), plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))+
  transition_time(year, range = c(2012,2018))

animate(map_plts, nframes = 7, fps = 1)

anim_save("state_grade_animation.GIF")

dat_loc = left_join(dat_loc,states%>%mutate(state.name = tolower(state.name)), by = c("region"="state.name"))
b2=full_join(ss_counts%>%ungroup()%>%filter(year>=2007)%>%filter(!(state%in%c("AK","HI")))%>%select(state,year,access_laws,transport,screening,ban), dat_loc, by=c("state"="state.abb"))%>%
  select(-subregion)%>%
  gather(key = "law_class", value = "number_in_effect", c(3:6))
b2 = b2[complete.cases(b2),]


law.labs <- c("Access Laws", "Bans","Screening Laws", "Transport Laws")
names(law.labs) <- c("access_laws", "ban","screening","transport")

map_plts_law = ggplot(data = b2, aes(x = long, y = lat, group = group))+
  geom_polygon(aes(fill = number_in_effect), color = "white")+
  scale_fill_viridis(option = "D", name = "Laws in\nEffect\n(R-P)")+
  labs(title = "Law Changes by Year",subtitle = 'Year: {frame_time}', x = NULL, y = NULL)+
  theme_bw()+
  facet_wrap(.~law_class, labeller = labeller(law_class = law.labs))+
  theme(line = element_blank(), axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.text.y = element_blank(), plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))+
  transition_time(year, range = c(2007,2019))

animate(map_plts_law, nframes = 13, fps = 1)

anim_save("state_law_animation.GIF")

ss_counts%>%
  filter(year %in% seq(2012,2018,by=1))%>%
  filter(!is.na(grade))%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = incident_count , fill = grade))+
  geom_histogram(binwidth = 1)+
  facet_wrap(.~year)+
  scale_fill_manual(values = cc)+
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0,35,by=5))+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 3.5))+
  theme_bw()+
  labs(x= "Number of School Shootings")

ss_counts%>%
  filter(year %in% seq(2012,2018,by=1))%>%
  filter(!is.na(grade))%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = grade, y = incident_count, color = grade))+
  geom_boxplot()+
  facet_wrap(.~year)+
  theme_bw()+
  scale_color_manual(values = cc)+
  labs(y= "Number of School Shootings", x = "Grade")

ss_counts%>%
  filter(year %in% seq(2012,2018,by=1))%>%
  ggplot()+
  geom_bar(aes(x = reorder(state,population), y = incident_count), stat = "identity")+
  geom_point(aes(x = state, y = log(population), color = "population"), size = .4)+
  theme_bw()+
  labs(x = "State", y = "Number of School Shootings", title = "Number of School Shooting and Population by State")+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 3.5), legend.position = c(.7, 0), legend.justification = c(1, 0))+
  facet_wrap(.~year)+
  scale_color_discrete(name = NULL, labels = "Population (log)")

ss_counts%>%
  filter(year %in% seq(2012,2018,by=1))%>%
  group_by(state) %>%
  mutate(ordr = mean(avg_victims, na.rm = T))%>%
  filter(ordr!="NaN")%>%
  ungroup()%>%
  arrange(desc(ordr))%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = reorder(state,ordr), y = avg_victims, color = year))+
  geom_point(size = 0.6, position = "jitter")+
  labs(x = "State", y = "Average number of victims per incident", title ="Victims per School Shooting")+
  scale_color_viridis(option = "D")+
  theme_bw()+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 6))

Media Plots

media%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = prev_month_art, y = mass_shooting, color = as.numeric(year)))+geom_point(position = "jitter")+
  scale_color_continuous(name = "Year")+
  labs(y = "Mass Shooting Count", x = "Articles in Previous Month")+
  theme_bw()

media%>%
    mutate(date = as.Date(zoo::as.yearmon(paste(year,"-",month, sep = ""))))%>%
  ggplot(aes(y = articles_shootings_excluding_firearm_laws_and_regulations, x= date, color = year))+
  geom_point()+
  geom_jitter()+
  labs(y = "Monthly Articles",x =  "Year", title = "Media Coverage of Shootings", subtitle = "Articles in NYT and Washington Post Regarding Shootings")+
  scale_color_continuous(name = "Year")+
  theme_bw()+
  theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5), plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0.5, size = 8))

media%>%
ggplot(aes(y = articles_shootings_excluding_firearm_laws_and_regulations/yearly_shootings, x= as.numeric(year)))+
  geom_point()+
  geom_jitter()+
  labs(y = "Monthly Articles/Yearly Mass Shootings",x =  "Year")+
  scale_color_continuous(name = "Year")+
  theme_bw()

media%>%
  ggplot(aes(y = yearly_articles, x= as.numeric(year)))+ 
  geom_point()+
  labs(y = "Yearly Articles",x =  "Year")+
  theme_bw()

school_counts = ss%>%
  select(school,city,state)%>%
  unite(col = school_city,c(school,city,state), sep = "_")%>%
  table(dnn = c("school","count"))%>%
  data.frame()%>%
  separate(col = school_city, into = c("school","city","state"), sep = "_" )


delta = data.frame(state = NULL, year = NULL, delta_gpa = NULL, delta_ss = NULL, delta_pop = NULL)
for(x in unique(ss_counts$state)){
  dat = filter(ss_counts, state == x)%>%
    arrange(year)
  chng_gpa = c(NA,diff(dat$gpa))
  chng_ss = c(NA, diff(dat$incident_count))
  chng_pop = c(NA, diff(dat$population))
  st = rep(x, nrow(dat))
  newrows =data.frame(state = st, year = dat$year, delta_gpa = chng_gpa, delta_ss = chng_ss, delta_pop= chng_pop)
  delta = bind_rows(delta,newrows)
  
}

ss_counts%>%
  group_by(year)%>%
  summarise(yearly_incidents = sum(incident_count), prev_year_art = prev_year_art[1] )%>%
  filter(year %in% seq(1999,2017, by = 1))%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = year, y = yearly_incidents, fill = prev_year_art))+geom_bar(stat = "identity")+
  labs(y = "Yearly School Shootings", x = "Year")+
  scale_fill_viridis(option = "D", name = "Articles in previous year")+
  theme_bw()

Bullying survey plots

ggplot(data= bullying_survey%>%filter(year>=2013), aes(x = year, y = prop, grouby_by = state, color = variable))+
  geom_line(position = "jitter")+
  scale_color_viridis_d()+
  theme_bw()

ggplot(data= bullying_survey%>%filter(variable %in% qns[9:17]), aes(x = year, y = prop, color = variable))+
  geom_point(position = "jitter")+
  geom_smooth(se=F)+
  scale_color_viridis_d()+
  theme_bw()

lab = data.frame(question = yrbss::yrbss_questions_binary$variable, label = yrbss::yrbss_questions_binary$label)%>%
   filter(question %in% qns)

kableExtra::kable(lab, byrow = F, caption = "Questions topics")

Questions topics

question	label
qn13	Carried a weapon
qn14	Carried a gun
qn15	Carried a weapon on school property
qn16	Did not go to school because they felt unsafe at school or on their way to or from school
qn17	Were threatened or injured with a weapon on school property
qn18	Were in a physical fight
qn19	Were injured in a physical fight
qn20	Were in a physical fight on school property
qn24	Were bullied on school property
qn25	Were electronically bullied
qn26	Felt sad or hopeless
qn27	Seriously considered attempting suicide
qn28	Made a plan about how they would attempt suicide
qn29	Attempted suicide
qn30	Attempted suicide that resulted in an injury, poisoning, or overdose that had to be treated by a doctor or nurse
qnbullyweight	Been teased b/c of weight past 12 mos
qnbullygay	Been teased b/c labeled GLB past 12 mos

bullying_survey%>%
  slice(which(complete.cases(bullying_survey)))%>%
  select(label)%>%
  table()%>%
  data.frame()%>%
  kableExtra::kable(caption = "Observations per Question")

Observations per Question

.	Freq
Attempted suicide	298
Attempted suicide that resulted in an injury, poisoning, or overdose that had to be treated by a doctor or nurse	282
Been teased b/c labeled GLB past 12 mos	18
Been teased b/c of weight past 12 mos	18
Carried a gun	231
Carried a weapon	275
Carried a weapon on school property	292
Did not go to school because they felt unsafe at school or on their way to or from school	298
Felt sad or hopeless	251
Made a plan about how they would attempt suicide	291
Seriously considered attempting suicide	308
Were bullied on school property	124
Were electronically bullied	94
Were in a physical fight	298
Were in a physical fight on school property	294
Were injured in a physical fight	270
Were threatened or injured with a weapon on school property	291

surv.labs = c("Bullying Score", "Physical Altercation Score", "School Danger Perception Score", "Suicidal Thoughts or Actions Score")
names(surv.labs)= c("bully_score", "fight_score", "school_safety_score","suicide_score")

survey_combined%>%
  gather(key = score_type, percent, c(3,5,7,9))%>%
  ggplot(aes(x = state, y = percent, color = score_type ))+
  geom_boxplot()+
  scale_color_viridis_d()+
  labs(title = "Survey Reponses by State", x = "State", y = "Percent Answering 'Yes'")+
  facet_wrap(.~score_type,labeller = labeller(score_type = surv.labs))+
  theme_bw()+
  theme(legend.position = "none")+
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 4.5))

Model Fitting

fit_grade = glm(incident_count~gpa+poverty+bullying_score+ prev_year_art+year+suicide_score+fight_score+school_safety_score+bully_score+ offset(log(population)), family = "poisson", data = ss_counts)

summary(fit_grade)

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = incident_count ~ gpa + poverty + bullying_score + 
##     prev_year_art + year + suicide_score + fight_score + school_safety_score + 
##     bully_score + offset(log(population)), family = "poisson", 
##     data = ss_counts)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -3.0430  -0.8783  -0.4997   0.4867   2.2694  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                       Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)         -7.360e+01  1.177e+02  -0.625    0.532    
## gpa                 -3.189e-01  7.065e-02  -4.513 6.38e-06 ***
## poverty             -3.955e-02  3.050e-02  -1.297    0.195    
## bullying_score       8.407e-02  5.133e-02   1.638    0.101    
## prev_year_art        5.163e-04  3.360e-04   1.537    0.124    
## year                 2.831e-02  5.842e-02   0.485    0.628    
## suicide_score        3.477e+00  4.898e+00   0.710    0.478    
## fight_score         -3.526e+00  2.612e+00  -1.350    0.177    
## school_safety_score -3.702e+00  3.999e+00  -0.926    0.355    
## bully_score          1.762e+00  3.442e+00   0.512    0.609    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for poisson family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 314.90  on 299  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 266.23  on 290  degrees of freedom
##   (2200 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 590.55
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5

fit_law = glm(reformulate(names(ss_counts)[c(23,25,26,28,30,32,34,36:39)],names(ss_counts)[3]), offset=log(population), family = "poisson", data = ss_counts)
summary(fit_law)

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = reformulate(names(ss_counts)[c(23, 25, 26, 28, 
##     30, 32, 34, 36:39)], names(ss_counts)[3]), family = "poisson", 
##     data = ss_counts, offset = log(population))
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.4926  -0.8152  -0.5216   0.3660   3.0823  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                       Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)         -1.568e+01  1.083e+00 -14.472  < 2e-16 ***
## prev_year_art        5.114e-04  2.232e-04   2.291  0.02196 *  
## poverty             -3.079e-02  2.245e-02  -1.372  0.17011    
## bullying_score       6.396e-02  4.207e-02   1.520  0.12839    
## suicide_score        7.534e+00  4.097e+00   1.839  0.06593 .  
## school_safety_score -4.671e+00  3.754e+00  -1.244  0.21338    
## fight_score         -5.600e+00  2.007e+00  -2.791  0.00526 ** 
## bully_score         -2.604e+00  2.899e+00  -0.898  0.36909    
## access_laws         -7.306e-02  2.704e-02  -2.701  0.00690 ** 
## transport            8.518e-02  5.182e-02   1.644  0.10026    
## screening            3.969e-03  2.895e-02   0.137  0.89096    
## ban                 -2.183e-01  1.205e-01  -1.811  0.07009 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for poisson family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 560.79  on 549  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 485.60  on 538  degrees of freedom
##   (1950 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 966.03
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5

z_fit = pscl::zeroinfl(reformulate(names(ss_counts)[c(23,25,26,28,30,32,34,36:39)],names(ss_counts)[3]), offset=log(population), dist  = "poisson", data = ss_counts)
summary(z_fit)

## 
## Call:
## pscl::zeroinfl(formula = reformulate(names(ss_counts)[c(23, 25, 
##     26, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36:39)], names(ss_counts)[3]), data = ss_counts, 
##     offset = log(population), dist = "poisson")
## 
## Pearson residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -1.7698 -0.5790 -0.3020  0.2628  4.0157 
## 
## Count model coefficients (poisson with log link):
##                       Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)         -1.608e+01  1.110e+00 -14.488  < 2e-16 ***
## prev_year_art        1.859e-04  2.121e-04   0.876  0.38091    
## poverty             -5.386e-02  2.348e-02  -2.294  0.02182 *  
## bullying_score       4.507e-02  4.285e-02   1.052  0.29281    
## suicide_score        8.400e+00  4.207e+00   1.997  0.04584 *  
## school_safety_score  1.711e+00  4.107e+00   0.416  0.67707    
## fight_score         -6.332e+00  2.023e+00  -3.130  0.00175 ** 
## bully_score          1.959e+00  3.127e+00   0.626  0.53104    
## access_laws         -7.996e-02  2.706e-02  -2.955  0.00313 ** 
## transport            1.178e-01  5.404e-02   2.180  0.02928 *  
## screening           -1.606e-02  2.982e-02  -0.538  0.59031    
## ban                 -9.321e-02  1.222e-01  -0.763  0.44549    
## 
## Zero-inflation model coefficients (binomial with logit link):
##                      Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)  
## (Intercept)         -30.45079   22.52488  -1.352   0.1764  
## prev_year_art        -0.02772    0.01508  -1.838   0.0660 .
## poverty              -0.47080    0.36127  -1.303   0.1925  
## bullying_score       -0.51831    0.40051  -1.294   0.1956  
## suicide_score       119.99216   69.81387   1.719   0.0857 .
## school_safety_score 105.54272   77.51072   1.362   0.1733  
## fight_score         -26.23736   36.94041  -0.710   0.4775  
## bully_score         185.21430  123.72378   1.497   0.1344  
## access_laws          -0.59825    0.52271  -1.145   0.2524  
## transport            -1.18048    1.09534  -1.078   0.2812  
## screening            -1.83901    1.15038  -1.599   0.1099  
## ban                   5.92543    4.21001   1.407   0.1593  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 
## 
## Number of iterations in BFGS optimization: 295 
## Log-likelihood: -453.8 on 24 Df

fit_law_victims = MASS::glm.nb(total_victims ~ prev_year_art + poverty + bullying_score + suicide_score + school_safety_score + fight_score + bully_score + access_laws + 
    transport + screening + ban+ offset(log(population)), data = ss_counts)
summary(fit_law_victims)

## 
## Call:
## MASS::glm.nb(formula = total_victims ~ prev_year_art + poverty + 
##     bullying_score + suicide_score + school_safety_score + fight_score + 
##     bully_score + access_laws + transport + screening + ban + 
##     offset(log(population)), data = ss_counts, init.theta = 2.07623449, 
##     link = log)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.4293  -0.8294  -0.2343   0.4273   3.4255  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                       Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)         -1.727e+01  1.330e+00 -12.985  < 2e-16 ***
## prev_year_art       -4.689e-05  2.866e-04  -0.164 0.870040    
## poverty             -8.704e-02  2.928e-02  -2.973 0.002946 ** 
## bullying_score       2.294e-02  5.089e-02   0.451 0.652171    
## suicide_score        1.657e+01  5.172e+00   3.205 0.001353 ** 
## school_safety_score -8.095e+00  5.805e+00  -1.395 0.163160    
## fight_score          7.175e+00  2.539e+00   2.826 0.004710 ** 
## bully_score          6.918e+00  3.845e+00   1.799 0.071985 .  
## access_laws         -1.184e-01  3.175e-02  -3.729 0.000192 ***
## transport            1.820e-01  7.025e-02   2.591 0.009577 ** 
## screening            7.706e-02  3.482e-02   2.213 0.026875 *  
## ban                 -3.372e-01  1.499e-01  -2.250 0.024454 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.0762) family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 248.49  on 195  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 195.50  on 184  degrees of freedom
##   (2304 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 802.79
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
## 
## 
##               Theta:  2.076 
##           Std. Err.:  0.370 
## 
##  2 x log-likelihood:  -776.795

1-pchisq(195.70 , df = 184)

## [1] 0.2636877

plot(DHARMa::simulateResiduals(fit_law))

if(FALSE){
ts_dat = ss_counts%>%
  ungroup()%>%
  select(-c(4:17,23:24,27))%>%
  select(-starts_with("n"))%>%
  filter(year>=2007)%>%
  filter(year<2019)
ts_y = ts(ts_dat%>%ungroup()%>%select(incident_count))

ts_x = ts_dat%>%
  select(c(6,9:18))%>%
  mutate(population = log(population))%>%
  as.matrix()

ts_fit = tsglm(ts_y, xreg = ts_x, model = list(past_obs = 2, external = c(FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,TRUE,TRUE)), link = "log", distr = "poisson")

best_fit = forecast::auto.arima(diff(ts_y), xreg = diff(ts_x))

astsa::sarima(diff(ts_y),p = 2, d = 0, q =2, xreg = diff(ts_x))
arima(diff(ts_y),order = c(2,0,2), xreg = diff(ts_x))$coef
sqrt(diag(vcov( arima(diff(ts_y),order = c(0,0,0), xreg = diff(ts_x)))))

cilb= arima(diff(ts_y),order = c(0,0,0), xreg = diff(ts_x))$coef-sqrt(diag(vcov( arima(diff(ts_y),order = c(0,0,0), xreg = diff(ts_x)))))

ciub = arima(diff(ts_y),order = c(0,0,0), xreg = diff(ts_x))$coef+sqrt(diag(vcov( arima(diff(ts_y),order = c(0,0,0), xreg = diff(ts_x)))))
data.frame(Lower= cilb, Upper = ciub)
}